Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
